• ISSN 1008-505X
  • CN 11-3996/S

我国省级尺度化肥“生产—施用”过程温室气体排放、耕地面积和粮食产量的多元时空协同特征

Spatiotemporal synergy among chemical fertilizer-related greenhouse gas emissions, cultivated land area and grain yield at the provincial scale in China

    摘要
  • 摘要:
    目的 明确化肥“生产—施用”过程温室气体排放特征及其与粮食生产和耕地资源配置的协同关系，为农业绿色低碳发展提供科学依据。
    方法 基于2005—2021年全国主要粮食作物(水稻、小麦、玉米、豆类)的化肥投入量数据，采用排放系数法核算化肥生产和施用过程中的温室气体排放量，并基于改进重心模型分析化肥温室气体排放量、粮食产量及耕地面积三者之间的多元时空协同关系。
    结果 1) 2005—2014年，化肥投入量以年均2.7%的速度增长，2014年后略有下降；化肥结构从尿素(占比36.5%)向NPK复合肥(占比34.1%)转变，后者投入量增长近3倍。在2005—2021年，我国化肥生产和施用过程中的温室气体排放呈先上升后下降的趋势。其中生产阶段排放占比达41.5%。2)我国主要粮食作物生产中温室气体排放量表现为：玉米(40.62×106 t)>小麦(29.28×106 t)>水稻(28.66×106 t)>豆类(3.64×106 t)，其中玉米的化肥温室气体排放在2005—2014年增速最快，年增长率达7.3%。黑龙江、河南等粮食主产区化肥相关温室气体排放量较大，而北京因耕地减少，排放量年均下降6.53%。3) 2005—2021年，我国化肥温室气体排放、耕地面积和粮食产量三者的多元时间协同关系处于较高水平，匹配度处于 0.46～0.71，而我国重要的粮食主产区的 13 个省份中，仅山东省处于较差的时间协同关系，年均匹配度仅 0.40，其余粮食主产区匹配度在 0.53～0.84。各省份空间协同关系整体稳定(平均匹配度0.90)，但黑龙江省匹配度显著提升(2.6%/年)，河南省则从0.60降至0.49。
    结论 我国耕地面积、粮食生产与化肥温室气体排放之间呈现较好的时空协同关系。在时间上，三者的协同匹配度在0.46～0.71波动，显示粮食生产与耕地面积、化肥温室气体排放长期保持中等偏上的协调性，说明我国农业生产系统在时间动态上相对稳定。在空间上，三者的匹配度更加稳定且维持在较高水平，说明不同区域的耕地资源分布、粮食产量和化肥施用强度之间的空间配置较为合理，形成了良好的区域协同效应。针对协同性较差的省份，建议通过优化化肥生产技术、调整施肥结构(如减少氮肥依赖)及完善区域资源配置体系，推动农业绿色发展格局的优化升级。

     

    Abstract:
    Objectives Chemical fertilizer-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have become an urgent issue for sustainable agricultural production.
    Methods Based on chemical fertilizer input data for China’s major grain crops (rice, wheat, corn, and legumes) from 2005 to 2021, this study quantified GHG emissions from fertilizer production and application processes and analyzed the multivariate spatiotemporal synergy among fertilizer GHG emissions, grain yield, and cultivated land area using an improved centroid-based model.
    Results 1) From 2005 to 2014, fertilizer input increased at an annual rate of 2.7%, followed by a slight decline thereafter. The fertilizer input structure shifted from urea (36.5%) to NPK compound fertilizers (34.1%), with the quantity of the latter nearly tripling. GHG emissions from fertilizer production and application exhibited a rise-decline pattern, with production processes accounting for 41.5% of total emissions. 2) Fertilizer-related GHG emissions by crop were ranked as maize (40.62×106 t) > wheat (29.28×106 t) > rice (28.66×106 t) > legumes (3.64×106 t). Among these, maize showed the fastest growth in emissions during 2005−2014, with an annual increase of 7.3%. Major grain-producing provinces (e.g., Heilongjiang, Henan) exhibited higher emission levels, whereas Beijing experienced an average annual decline of 6.53% due to reductions in farmland area. 3) From 2005 to 2021, China exhibited a relatively high level of multivariate temporal synergy among fertilizer-related greenhouse gas emissions, cultivated land area, and grain production (0.46−0.71). Among the 13 major grain-producing provinces, most demonstrated moderate-to-high synergy (0.53−0.84), whereas Shandong Province showed relatively poor synergy (0.40). Spatial synergy remained generally stable nationwide (average 0.90), with a notable improvement in Heilongjiang (2.6% per year) and a decline in Henan (from 0.60 to 0.49).
    Conclusions Overall, China showed strong spatiotemporal synergy among cultivated land area, grain production, and fertilizer-related GHG emissions. The temporal synergy shows moderate fluctuations (0.46−0.71), indicating relatively stable agricultural dynamics, while spatial synergy was consistently high, reflecting a generally rational regional allocation of agricultural resources. Provinces with poor synergy should optimize fertilizer production, adjust application structures (e.g., reducing nitrogen dependence), and promote green agricultural development.

     

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