• ISSN 1008-505X
  • CN 11-3996/S

我国省级尺度化肥“生产-施用”温室气体排放、耕地面积和粮食产量的多元时空协同特征

Spatiotemporal synergy among fertilizer-related greenhouse gas emissions, cultivated land area and grain yield at the provincial scale in China

    摘要
  • 摘要:
    目的 明确化肥“生产—施用”过程温室气体排放特征及其与粮食生产和耕地资源配置的协同关系，为农业绿色低碳发展提供科学依据。
    方法 基于2005—2021年全国主要粮食作物(稻谷、小麦、玉米、豆类)的化肥投入量数据，采用排放系数法核算化肥生产和施用过程中的温室气体排放量，并基于改进重心模型分析化肥温室气体排放量、粮食产量及耕地面积三者之间的多元时空协同关系。
    结果 1) 2005—2014年，化肥投入量以年均2.7%的速度增长，2014年后略有下降；化肥结构从尿素(占比36.5%)向NPK复合肥(占比34.1%)转变，后者投入量增长近3倍。在2005—2021年间，我国化肥生产和施用过程中的温室气体排放呈先上升后下降趋势。其中生产阶段排放占比达41.5%。2)我国主要粮食作物的温室气体排放量依次为：玉米(40.62×106 t)>稻谷(29.28×106 t)>小麦(28.66×106 t)>豆类(3.64×106 t)，其中玉米的化肥温室气体排放在2005—2014年间增速最快，年增长率达7.3%。黑龙江、河南等粮食主产区化肥相关温室气体排放量较大，而北京因耕地减少，排放量年均下降6.53%。3)2005—2021年，多数省份化肥温室气体、耕地面积和粮食产量的多元时间协同关系处于中等及以上水平，匹配度介于0.5～0.88，只有山东、天津、陕西、西藏处于较差或极差的多元时间协同，匹配度分布在0.40～0.49。各省份空间协同关系整体稳定(平均匹配度0.90)，但黑龙江匹配度显著提升(2.6%/年)，河南则从0.60降至0.49。
    结论 我国耕地面积、粮食生产与化肥温室气体排放之间呈现较好的时空协同关系。从时间上看，三者的协同匹配度在0.46～0.71之间波动，表明粮食生产与耕地面积、化肥温室气体排放长期保持中等偏上的协调性，说明我国农业生产系统在时间动态上相对稳定。在空间上，三者的匹配度更加稳定且维持在较高水平，说明不同区域的耕地资源分布、粮食产量和化肥施用强度之间的空间配置较为合理，形成了良好的区域协同效应。针对协同性较差的省份，建议通过优化化肥生产技术、调整施肥结构(如减少氮肥依赖)及完善区域资源配置体系，推动农业绿色发展格局的优化升级。

     

    Abstract:
    Objectives Fertilizer-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have become an urgent issue for sustainable agricultural production.
    Methods Based on fertilizer input data for China's major grain crops (rice, wheat, corn, and legumes) from 2005 to 2021, this study quantified GHG emissions from fertilizer production and application processes and analyzed the multivariate spatiaotemporal synergy among fertilizer GHG emissions, grain yield, and cultivated land area using an improved centroid-based model.
    Results 1) From 2005 to 2014, fertilizer input increased at an annual rate of 2.7%, followed by a slight decline thereafter. The fertilizer input structure shifted from urea (36.5%) to NPK compound fertilizers (34.1%), with the latter nearly tripling in quantity. GHG emissions from fertilizer production and application exhibited a rise-decline pattern, with production processes accounting for 41.5% of total emissions. 2) Fertilizer-related GHG emissions by crop were ranked as: maize (40.62×106 t) > rice (29.28×106 t) > wheat (28.66×106 t) > legumes (3.64×106 t). Among these, maize showed the fastest growth in emissions during 2005−2014, with an annual increase of 7.3%. Major grain-producing provinces (e.g., Heilongjiang, Henan) exhibited higher emission levels, whereas Beijing experienced an average annual decline of 6.53% due to reductions in farmland area. 3) From 2005 to 2021, most provinces exhibited moderate-to-high multivariate temporal synergy (0.5−0.88), except for Shandong, Tianjin, Shaanxi, and Tibet , which showed relatively poor synergy (0.40−0.49). Spatial synergy remained generally stable nationwide (average 0.90), with a notable improvement in Heilongjiang (2.6% per year) and a decline in Henan (0.60 to 0.49).
    Conclusions Overall, China showed strong spatiotemporal synergy among cultivated land area, grain production, and fertilizer-related GHG emissions. Temporal synergy shows moderate fluctuations (0.46−0.71), indicating relatively stable agricultural dynamics, while spatial synergy was consistently high, reflecting a generally rational regional allocation of agricultural resources. Provinces with poor synergy should optimize fertilizer production, adjust application structures (e.g., reducing nitrogen dependence), and promote green agricultural development.

     

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